📈 Ticker: NYSE: PCG
💵 Price: $16.40 (+0.61%)
🧠 Thesis in 7 words: Regulated growth, wildfire de-risking, rerating potential.

Why We’re Talking About PG&E (PCG)

• Third Point’s #1 holding (11.4%): Daniel Loeb didn’t just nibble—he made PCG his portfolio captain and added in Q1’25. 🧭

• Heavy institutional backing: ~97% institutional ownership; short interest ~1.8%. The “smart money” likes regulated megawatts. 🏦

• Guided growth you can model: 2025 non-GAAP core EPS $1.49–$1.51; 2026 $1.62–$1.66; at least 9%/yr EPS growth guided for 2027–2030. 📊

• Valuation still sensible: Forward P/E ~9.6x, P/S ~1.4x, P/B ~1.2x. That’s defensive-growth at a discount. 🛡️

For Pg&E (PCG)'s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.

Business Check-In (and Why It’s Not 2019 Anymore)

PG&E has been rebuilding both literally and figuratively:

• Undergrounding: 1,000 miles done, with ~700 miles planned (’25–’26) + ~500 miles of other wildfire hardening. That’s risk mitigation you can drive a boring machine through. 🚧🛠️

• Rates trending down: Residential electric rates cut ~2.1% in Sept ’25 and projected to decline again in 2026. Affordability matters for regulators and sentiment. 💡⬇️

• Resiliency flex: The Calistoga hybrid battery + hydrogen microgrid is live. Long-duration storage = fewer candles during wind events. 🔋🌬️

• Electrification tailwinds: 3,100+ new customers and 3,800+ EV ports connected in the quarter. More load (the good kind). 🚗⚡

Revenue: $18.13B for the first nine months of 2025 (vs. $17.79B ’24). Incremental, steady, regulated.
Earnings: Q3’25 GAAP EPS $0.37; core EPS $0.50. 2025 core EPS narrowed to $1.49–$1.51; 2026 initiated at $1.62–$1.66.
O&M: On track to meet/exceed the 2% non-fuel O&M reduction target for 2025. 🧹

 👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Pg&E (PCG)'s financials here.

Why the Hedge Funds Love It (And Maybe You Should Too)

• Visibility: A multi-year EPS glidepath and rate-base growth you can spreadsheet in your sleep. 🛏️📈

• De-risking: Undergrounding + hardening + the California Wildfire Fund (with per-incident caps) pulls tail risk out of the extremes. 🌲🔥➡️📉

• Multiple expansion optionality: Forward P/E < 10 on a regulated utility guiding high-single-digit EPS growth? If execution stays clean, re-rating isn’t far-fetched. 🧮

• Crowded with quality: Ownership roster includes Vanguard, BlackRock, MFS, Geode—and Third Point holding ~51M shares. 🧱

Valuation Quick Bite 🍪

• Forward P/E: ~9.6x (sector peers often 15x+)

• PEG (5y): ~0.78 (sub-1 = interesting)

• P/S: ~1.39x

• P/B: ~1.16x

• EV/EBITDA: ~10x

Translation: You’re not paying a growth multiple for a name guiding growth.

The Wildfire in the Room (Risks 🔥)

• Fire liability: Much improved posture + fund backstop, but not zero. Weather and climate can be rude.

• Regulatory shifts: ROE tweaks, cost disallowances, or rate friction could dent the glidepath.

• Macro & rates: Higher funding costs can pressure earnings; PCG’s capex is real.

• Execution: Undergrounding at scale is a marathon—delays or overruns would smoke sentiment.

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
Check our takes on UnitedHealth Group or even Oscar Health.

What Could Go Right (Catalysts 🌟)

• On-time undergrounding & safety metrics keep trending better.

• Rate moderation persists into 2026, easing political pressure.

• Load growth accelerates (EVs, data centers, electrification).

• Street re-rates a “fixed-up PG&E” as a steady compounder.

Quick Take / TL;DR

• Story: Rebuilt PG&E with hardening, rate moderation, and a clear EPS runway.

• Numbers: 2025 core EPS $1.50 (mid), 2026 $1.64 (mid), 9%+ CAGR thereafter (’27–’30).

• Valuation: Forward P/E < 10, PEG < 1—cheap for guided growth.

• Set-up: Top holding at Third Point; broad institutional buy-in; low short interest.

• Call: For investors comfortable with regulated utilities and residual CA risk, PCG looks like a buy-the-boring-that-compounds.

FAQs (Because Power Lines and Portfolios Raise Questions)

Q: Isn’t wildfire risk a permanent overhang?
A: It’s the core risk, yes—but mitigated by massive undergrounding, system hardening, improved operations, and the state wildfire fund structure with per-incident caps. Risk ≠ zero, but it’s engineered lower.

Q: Why are rates falling now?
A: Combination of regulatory outcomes, cost controls, and timing. Management expects another decrease in 2026, which helps customer optics and regulatory goodwill.

Q: What drives the 9%+ EPS CAGR after 2026?
A: Rate-base growth from capital investment (undergrounding, resiliency, capacity), O&M efficiency, and allowed returns—net of financing and below-the-line items.

Q: Any balance-sheet worries?
A: Utilities carry leverage by design. The key is regulatory recovery and prudent financing. Watch rate cases and cost recovery closely.

Q: Why do hedge funds like a utility?
A: Predictable compounding at a value multiple in an otherwise expensive market + visible risk-reduction = attractive IRR math. It’s not flashy, it’s mathy.

Positioning Cheat Sheet 🧭

• Who it fits: Investors seeking defensive growth, low-teens total return potential via rerating + EPS CAGR.

• How to size: Core or satellite position; add on pullbacks tied to noise (weather headlines, rate chatter) if thesis intact.

• What to watch: Undergrounding miles, safety KPIs, rate updates, load growth, wildfire season metrics, and EPS guidance cadence.

Verdict (Fun + Smart Stamp)

Could PCG stand for “Purchase to Capitalize on Growth”? With Third Point driving the locomotive and management laying track you can actually see, yes—if you accept California risk with eyes open. Sometimes the most electrifying stock is the one keeping the lights on. ⚡

🧾⚠️📢 Fun(ny) Disclaimer: 🧾⚠️📢

🧫 Disclosure: Not investment advice. Utilities can shock you—figuratively and literally.

Always DYOR, hold the FOMO, and don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose. Also, keep your humor cells alive. 🧬😄  

We laugh, we analyze, we meme. We sell jokes and opinions — and yes, we’re billing your sense of humor. 🎪💸 
We’re not financial advisors. We’re FUNancial advisors. 

Invest at your own risk. 💸💧 

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