🎨 Etsy ($ETSY) had a very good day—actually, a spectacular one. 💰
On Sep 29, 2025, shares jumped +15.83% to $74.34, with intraday highs at $75.77 (a fresh 52-week high!) and lows at $63.64. For context, Etsy’s 52-week range is $40.05 to $75.77.

So what just happened? Grab your 🧵 knitting needles and 📦 shipping labels, because Etsy’s story is now part handmade craft, part AI magic, and part Wall Street juggernaut.

Trigger 1: OpenAI Gives Etsy a “Buy Now” Button 🤖🛍️

OpenAI just rolled out its new “Buy it in ChatGPT” feature, and Etsy is front and center.
Yes—you can now shop for handmade mugs, quirky jewelry, and “crochet shark hats” 🦈 directly in ChatGPT. No more copy/paste to Etsy.com. Just click, buy, and boom—hand-delivered by your friendly neighborhood mail carrier.

Investors loved the news. Not just Etsy investors—Shopify ($SHOP) rallied too, since its merchants may also benefit.

But for Etsy, this could mean millions of new eyeballs turning into buyers, because where do people spend their time? On AI platforms. Suddenly Etsy is sitting in the digital checkout line of the future.

Trigger 2: Institutions Already Back the Truck 🚚📈

While OpenAI delivered the sparkle, Wall Street’s institutional giants had already stuffed Etsy into their carts.

• Blackrock (12.8M shares) and Vanguard (11.8M) each own >10% of the company.

• Renaissance Technologies boosted its stake by a whopping 44% (quants crocheting models?).

• Holocene Advisors nearly went full Etsy-addict, increasing holdings by 697%. Yes, you read that right.

• Juggernauts Elliott Management and Goldman Sachs are also in.

• AQR Capital? Checked. Barclays, Arrowstreet, Van Eck? Checked, checked, checked.

📊 Breakdown Snapshot:

• 133.49% of shares held by institutions (short covering mechanics likely in play too).

• 711 institutions own Etsy stock. That’s not “handmade.” That’s “mass adoption by whales.” 🐋

For Etsy (ETSY)'s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.

Etsy 101: What Does It Sell Besides Hope? 🎁✨

Etsy isn’t just a quirky craft site. It runs:

• Etsy Marketplace – Handmade, vintage, and unique goods (core business).

• Depop – Fashion resale (thrift with style).

• Seller services – Ads, shipping labels, payments, and off-site promotions.

• Buyer perks – Purchase protection, personalized search, and community trust.

Headquartered in Brooklyn, NY 🗽 since 2005, Etsy is a two-sided marketplace built on artisan spirit… and now AI checkout buttons.

Q2 2025 Highlights: Some Knots in the Yarn 🧶📉

Etsy just reported second-quarter numbers:

• Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS): $2.8B, down 4.8% YoY (or $2.7B ex-Reverb).

• Revenue: $672.7M, up 3.8% YoY (ads & payments carried the weight).

• Net income: $28.8M, down $24M YoY due to FX losses.

• Adjusted EBITDA: $169M (25.1% margin).

• Stock buybacks: $335M repurchased.

• Cash cushion: $1.5B on hand after a $700M convertible raise.

Marketplace GMS fell, active buyers dipped 4.6% YoY, but Etsy’s take rate (the cut it keeps) hit 24%, thanks to ads.

Depop, on the other hand, is on 🔥:

• GMS up 35% YoY.

• U.S. growth +54%.

• Record new signups from paid media.

So Etsy is a tale of two platforms: the OG marketplace slowing down a bit, while Depop zooms ahead in Gen Z closets.

Q3 2025 Guidance 🔮📊

• GMS: $2.6–2.7B

• Take rate: ~24.5%

• EBITDA margin: ~25%

Management is hammering 4 strategic initiatives:

1. Show up where shoppers discover (hello, ChatGPT 👋).

2. Match shoppers to better content via Machine Learning.

3. Reward valuable customers.

4. Amplify the human connection 🧑🤝🧑 that makes Etsy unique.

👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Etsy (ETSY)'s financials here.

Valuation Corner 🧮💡

• Market Cap: $6.36B

• Forward P/E: 22.47 (both growth-ish and... even a bit value-ish).

• PEG (5-yr): 1.98 (a little rich).

• EV/EBITDA: ~20.5x (growth multiple).

👉 Translation: Not cheap. But not insane either, given the growth optionality from AI integration + Depop momentum.

And oh—stock still trades 75% below its all-time high of $307 (Nov 2021). If Etsy regains mojo, upside is enormous.

Bull Case 🐂🎉

• Brand Loyalty: The go-to marketplace for handmade and vintage goods.

• AI Tailwind: Shopping integration with ChatGPT could reignite growth.

• Institutional Confidence: Wall Street’s smartest money is in.

• Buybacks + Cash: $1.5B war chest, ongoing repurchases.

• Depop Growth: Fashion resale is booming.

Bear Case 🐻😬

• Declining Buyers/GMS: Core Etsy marketplace shrinking (but a handmade revival could stitch back soon 🖐️🧵✨).

• Discretionary Spending Risk: Crafts = nice-to-have, not must-have in recessions.

• Rising Fees: Sellers frustrated, some leaving.

• Competition: Amazon Handmade, eBay, Shopify.

• Failed M&A: Depop’s good, but Elo7/Reverb were flops (and goodwill write-offs hurt).

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
👉 Check our take on UnitedHealth Group.

FAQ ❓💬

Q: Why did Etsy surge today?
A: OpenAI’s ChatGPT shopping integration = growth hope + institutional love.

Q: Is Etsy profitable?
A: Yes. Net income is pressured (FX hit), but Adjusted EBITDA margin ~25% is solid.

Q: Who owns the most Etsy stock?
A: Blackrock and Vanguard (each >10%), plus Renaissance, Elliott, Goldman, AQR, etc.

Q: What’s the biggest risk?
A: Declining user base and discretionary-spending exposure.

Q: Is Etsy cheap?
A: Forward P/E ~22. Not bargain-bin, but attractive if growth returns.

Quick Take / TL;DR ⚡📌

Etsy ($ETSY) just popped +15.8% after OpenAI enabled direct shopping inside ChatGPT. Institutions like Blackrock, Vanguard, Renaissance, Elliott, Goldman, and AQR are already all-in.

• The Good: AI boost, Depop growth, buybacks, $1.5B cash.

• The Bad: Shrinking Etsy marketplace (but perhaps temporary), seller grumbles (for how long?), tough competition.

• The Ugly: Stock still -75% below ATH, but with Forward P/E 22, there’s room to re-stitch growth.

👉 Verdict: Compelling growth/value hybrid. If Etsy stitches its way back to relevance, today’s $74 could look like a bargain quilt. 🧵🪡