Illustration of a bearish cartoon figure missing a red bullseye while a confident bull lounges with shopping bags. Behind them: a Target storefront, dividend coins, and a “Buy Low?” sign.

Target Bears Won’t Hit the Bull’s-Eye

TGT: $95.37 (-3.95%, as of Jun 13, 2025 @ 4:10 PM ET) 🎯 
📉 Short interest: 3.56% (as of May 30, 2025) — not terrifying, but eyebrow-raising.

So… are bears onto something?
Maybe not.


😬 No Insider Buys in Sight... But Wall Street Still Believes

🧍♂️ Not a single insider has purchased Target stock in two years.
But institutions? 💼 They’re all in:

🔝 Top Institutional Holders

Holder Shares % of Shares Outstanding Value
🏦 Vanguard Group 44.8M 9.87% $4.28B
🏦 State Street 35.2M 7.75% $3.36B
🏦 BlackRock 35M 7.71% $3.34B
💼 Schwab 16M 3.51% $1.52B
📊 FMR (Fidelity) 12.6M 2.78% $1.21B

Looks like somebody still believes in big red bullseyes.

🔍 For full Institutional Ownership breakdown, see here.


🧾 Target’s Financials: Stable but Sleepy

📅 Full-Year 2024 Highlights:

  • 📈 Comp sales: +0.1%

  • 💄 Beauty: Mid-single digit growth

  • 👗 Apparel & Essentials: Still growing

  • 👣 Traffic: +1.4% across stores and digital

  • 💰 GAAP & Adjusted EPS: $8.86

  • 💡 $2 billion in cost savings over two years (Note to self: $2 billion is not 0!)

🔮 Guidance for 2025:

  • 🛍️ Sales growth: ~1%

  • 📉 Flat-to-slightly-better margins

  • 💵 GAAP/Adj. EPS: $8.80–$9.80 (Note to self: it's a lot money per share!)

  • 💳 Effective tax rate: 23–24%

So... modest expectations, not moonshots. 🚀


📦 Q1 2025 Update: Holding the Line

  • 💵 Net Sales: $23.8B (down slightly from $24.5B)

  • 💻 Digital sales: +4.7% (especially in same-day delivery + Target Circle 360™)

  • 🎯 Designer collab with Kate Spade = 🧨 best in a decade

  • 💸 GAAP EPS: $2.27 vs. $2.03 YoY (Not bad!)

  • ✂️ Adjusted EPS (ex-litigation gains): $1.30

  • 🚀 Launched “Acceleration Office” (yes, that’s a real thing) led by CFO Michael Fiddelke to speed up innovation

👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Target’s financials here.


🤔 Why the Doubts?

Because…

  1. 🐢 Growth is sluggish. It's hard to move the needle at huge companies.

  2. 📉 No big bottom-line breakout expected.

  3. 🛍️ Fierce competition from Walmart, Amazon, Costco, dollar stores, drug stores, you name it.

  4. 🐻 Bears aren’t exactly wrong to ask questions.

Interested in another investment idea?
Check our take on UnitedHealth Group.


🔄 But There’s a Bullish Case to Be Made

Here’s what the bulls are clinging to:

Cheap-ish Valuation

  • P/E: 10.91

  • Price/Sales: 0.41

  • EV/Revenue: 0.56

  • EV/EBITDA: 6.69

Solid Fundamentals

  • Debt-to-equity: 1.27

  • Qtrly debt ratio: ~103.5%

  • Healthy margins and stable traffic

Shareholder Rewards

  • 💵 4.59% Dividend yield

  • 💰 $251M in Q1 share buybacks at avg. $114.60

Digital Delivery Growth

  • Circle 360™ and Drive-Up booming 🚗💨

Big Brand, Big Love

  • Long-term brand loyalty

  • Huge institutional support

  • Still a go-to for millions of households


🎯 Final Take: Steady as She Shops

Target may not be flashy right now, but it’s solid. The shares are a contrarian play. No fireworks, no cliff dives. Just… dependability. And a reasonable shot at compounding returns from this discounted base.

Will it outperform the market? Quite possibly.
Will it completely implode? Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

So if you want a stock that won’t ruin your day and still pays you while you wait — 🎯 might be worth a look.


🧴 Disclaimer
We’re not bulls or bears. More like stock squirrels — gathering acorns of insight. 🌰💼
This is not financial advice. Just a stylish scan of the retail jungle.


🧭 Want More Like This?

👉 Browse our Insider Purchases Center
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👉 International Investment Opportunities and value plays await here.
👉 For even older brands on new missions, explore our Corporate Resurrection Series. Nope, doesn't exist anymore. 

 

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