🌯 Chipotle Mexican Grill (NASDAQ: CMG) is one of those rare companies that serves both Wall Street and Main Street. Main Street gets burritos the size of small bowling balls. Wall Street gets burritos stuffed with growth, margins, and occasionally guac-sized volatility. The stock has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high of $69.26 (June 2024), so let’s unwrap what’s inside the tortilla. 🌯 

🌮 Insider Action: Bought High, Still Hungry

Back in March 2025, Director Mauricio Gutierrez scooped up 9,400 shares at $53 each—adding $498K worth of spicy exposure. Fast-forward to today: shares are trading at $40.13, meaning he’s deep underwater. Painful? Yes. Brave? Definitely. Hopeful? Probably powered by a triple-shot of hot salsa.

💼 Pershing Square and the Billionaire Burrito

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square still has $864M worth of CMG shares, representing 5.69% of its equity portfolio (its 8th largest holding). Even though they’ve trimmed some exposure, Ackman remains in the queue. Translation: the burrito billionaire isn’t bolting just yet.

🏦 Institutions Love Chipotle (Almost as Much as Sour Cream)

With over 90% of shares held by institutions and 1,754 institutional holders, this stock is stuffed with Wall Street ownership.

• Vanguard: $4.95B in shares (9.2% of total shares)

• BlackRock: $4.48B

• JPMorgan Chase: $2.57B (they added almost 8M shares—clearly they’re extra hungry)

Short interest? 1.78%. In burrito terms, that’s less “bear attack” and more “mild salsa.”

For Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)'s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.

📊 Q2 2025 Earnings: Mildly Spicy, Not Nuclear

• Revenue: $3.1B (+3% YoY)

• Comparable restaurant sales: down 4% (transactions slipped 4.9%)

• Operating margin: 18.2% (down from 19.7%)

• EPS: $0.32 (down from $0.33)

• Digital sales: 35.5% of total revenue (proof that many people now order burritos with one hand while texting apologies with the other)

• New restaurants: 61 (47 with Chipotlanes 🚗🌯—the drive-thru lane you never knew you needed until you needed a burrito fast)

Margins dipped thanks to pricier steak and chicken, while labor costs rose. Still, Chipotle is profitable, expanding, and repurchasing shares ($435.9M worth last quarter).

👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)'s financials here.

💸 Valuation: From “Guac Is Extra” to “Guac Might Be Worth It”

Chipotle isn’t cheap, but it’s cheaper than it used to be:

• Trailing P/E: 35.5 (down from 66.8 a year ago)

• Forward P/E: 28.4 (half of last year’s—progress!)

• Price/Sales: 4.7 (vs. 8.5 in 2024)

• PEG ratio: 1.7 (getting closer to the magic “1” that value investors whisper about at night)

Verdict: still not a dollar menu deal, but no longer priced like caviar either.

🚧 Risks: What Could Sour the Salsa?

1. Flat comps: Revenue growth is coming mainly from new restaurants, not same-store sales.

2. Margins: Higher labor and ingredient costs could keep pressuring profits.

3. Valuation premium: Even after the drop, CMG trades above many peers.

4. Aggressive expansion: With long-term targets of 7,000 North American locations and ambitions in Asia, cannibalization and integration constitute additional risks.

5. Competition: Sweetgreen, CAVA, Taco Bell, meal kits, and even Costco $1.50 hot dogs. The food fight is real.

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
👉 Check our take on UnitedHealth Group.

🌯 The Big Picture

Chipotle remains a high-quality fast-casual powerhouse with fortress-level brand recognition, strong digital sales, and ambitious expansion plans. Valuation is more palatable now, insiders and institutions still hold big stakes, and short sellers are scarce.

But with flat comps and margins under pressure, this is a Growth At a Reasonable Price (GARP) play—not a bargain basement Buffett-style value pick.

Do you go long? Or just go long on guac? Perhaps both, but that’s your call.

❓ FAQ

Q: Is Chipotle cheap now?
A: It’s cheaper, yes. But still trading at premium multiples compared to peers.

Q: Do insiders love this stock?
A: A director bought big at $53. He’s in the red, but at least he’s in.

Q: Does Ackman still own CMG?
A: Yes—$864M worth. He’s still on the burrito bus.

Q: What’s the outlook?
A: 315–345 new stores in 2025, 80% with Chipotlanes. Comps expected flat.

Q: Should I just eat the burritos?
A: Always. Just don’t expect the calories to repurchase themselves.

⚡ Quick Take / TL;DR

Chipotle is still a premium burrito stock but now at a much more reasonable valuation. Insiders bought high, Ackman is still holding, institutions are all in, and short interest is low. Risks include flat comps, inflation, and expansion headaches.

🥑 Verdict: A GARP-flavored play. Worth a starter bite if you believe in the long-term recipe.
🌯 Buy the burrito, maybe nibble the stock.