🎯 Target (NYSE: TGT) — $87.85 (+0.81%) as of Sep-26-2025, 4:10 PM ET.

If retail is war, Target’s wearing its red bull’s-eye proudly while dodging arrows from Walmart, Amazon, and Costco. Once the chic cousin of big-box retail (aka “Tar-zhay”), the company has stumbled in recent years. But with a new CEO, compelling valuation, and die-hard institutional support, is Target finally setting its sights on a comeback? 🛒🚀

🧑💼 Trigger 1: Meet the New Boss (Same as the Old Boss… but with Fresh Ammo)

Michael Fiddelke isn’t a stranger parachuting in with a PowerPoint and buzzwords. He’s a 20-year Target veteran, promoted from COO to CEO, effective February 1, 2026.

• Past gigs? CFO, EVP of Operations, SVP of Merchandising, and even VP of Pay & Benefits (yes, the guy who helped raise wages and keep employees happy).

• What’s new? Fiddelke launched the Enterprise Acceleration Office — a fancy way of saying “less red tape, more speed.”

• Reputation? Efficiency machine: cut $2B in costs, scaled stores, boosted supply chain, improved digital.

Translation: The man knows Target like shoppers know the Dollar Spot. The hope? He’ll bring back that stylish, affordable vibe Target was once famous for — without having to put everything on clearance. 🏷️✨

💸 Trigger 2: Where Are the Insider Buys?

Here’s the odd part: Target insiders haven’t bought stock in years. Zero. Nada. That’s like a chef who won’t eat his own cooking. 🍔❌

But before you panic:

• Short interest? 3.7% — not too many bears around for this blue-chip.

• Institutional love? Not quite off the charts, but solid; 85% of shares held by institutions, with Vanguard (which owns 51.5 million shares out of 454 million total shares outstanding), State Street, and BlackRock still backing the bull’s-eye.

Basically, big money hasn’t abandoned Target — but insiders aren’t signaling conviction either.

📊 Trigger 3: Analysts Are Taking Aim

CFRA just upgraded Target from Hold to Buy, raising their price target from $99 → $117. Why?

• Better-than-expected Q2 comps 📈

• Margin improvements from cleaner shelves + lower tariffs

• Growth in alt-revenue streams like Roundel ads (the retail media network and ad platform created by Target to leverage first-party data to connect brands with shoppers) and Target Circle 360 (paid membership program) 🚀

• Optimism that Fiddelke will steady the ship faster than an external hire would

Investors may have hoped for an outsider, but insiders argue: who better to fix Target than the guy who’s been fixing it for two decades (under someone else's perhaps frustrating direction)?

🛍️ The Numbers: What’s in Target’s Shopping Cart?

Q2 2025 Highlights:

• Sales: $25.2B (down 0.9% YoY but better than Q1 slump)

• Digital sales: +4.3% (thanks to Drive Up 🚗💨 and same-day delivery)

• Non-merch sales: +14.2% (ads, memberships, marketplace 💰)

• EPS: $2.05 (strong cost control offset tariffs + shrinkage)

• Gross margin: 29% (down slightly)

• Dividend: $509M paid (5.2% yield = juicy 🍒)

Guidance:

• FY25 EPS: $7–9 (steady but not sexy).

• Sales: low-single digit decline expected.

👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Target (TGT)'s financials here.

🏦 Institutional Scorecard

• Vanguard: 51M shares (+14.7%)

• State Street: 36M shares (+4.3%)

• BlackRock: 33M shares (light trim, -3.1%)

• Morgan Stanley: +29% stake 🚀

Big takeaway: funds are net buyers. Wall Street sees value, even if shoppers see messy shelves.

For Target (TGT)'s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.

🧮 Valuation: Value Play or Value Trap?

• Trailing P/E: 10.24 (cheap compared to Walmart ~39)

• Forward P/E: 11.95 (still cheap)

• EV/EBITDA: 6.46 (compelling)

• Dividend yield: 5.2% (beats your savings account 🏦💤)

Stock’s down 67% since its 2021 peak ($269). That’s either a gift 🎁 … or a warning sign ⚠️.

🛑 The Red Flags (Yes, Pun Intended)

1. Consumer Confidence Rollercoaster 🎢 – Inflation and rates = tighter wallets.

2. Margins Under Fire 🔥 – Discounts to move inventory = less profit.

3. Competition 👊 – Walmart’s cheaper, Amazon’s faster, Costco’s bulkier.

4. Supply Chain Risks 🚢 – China tariffs, shipping disruptions, higher costs.

5. Shrinkage 🕵️ – Retail theft eating margins like Pac-Man.

6. Digital Growth Lagging 🖥️ – Amazon still owns the click-to-cart crown.

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
👉 Check our take on UnitedHealth Group.

🎯 The Bull Case

• New CEO with deep experience and cost-cutting chops

• Funds love it, shorts don’t

• Dividend + buybacks (as of the end of Q2, the Company had approx. $8.4 billion of remaining capacity under the repurchase program approved by Target's Board of Directors in August 2021) = strong shareholder rewards

• Valuation is dirt cheap for a $40B retail giant

• Stock is trading at “value stock” levels, with room for growth if turnaround works

📌 FAQ Section

Q: Is Target a growth stock or a value stock now?
A: At these prices, it’s more value. But if Fiddelke sparks a turnaround, it could sneak back into (moderate) growth territory.

Q: Why isn’t Target growing like Amazon or Walmart?
A: Because Target is playing “stylish mid-market” — not bargain-basement (Walmart) and not everything-store (Amazon).

Q: What about the dividend?
A: At 5.2%, it’s one of the most attractive in retail. That alone keeps some investors hooked.

Q: Should I buy now?
A: If you believe in a turnaround, the math looks good. But if you fear more margin pain, wait.

⚡ Quick Take / TL;DR

• New CEO: Target insider Fiddelke takes over in Feb 2026. 🧑💼

• Valuation: Cheap cheap cheap. P/E ~10, 5.2% dividend. 💸

• Funds: Still believers. 📈

• Risks: Consumer confidence, shrinkage, competition, digital lag. 🛑

• Upside: Stock’s lost 2/3 of its value since 2021 ATH. A retracement could be very profitable. 🎯

Bottom line? Target may no longer be the belle of the ball, but at these prices, even hitting the dartboard could pay off handsomely.