💼 Goldman Sachs (GS): One Year Later—When a Great Investment Becomes a Great Company
Our Bullish Thesis Played Out. Here's Why We'd Be More Patient Today.
Inside Record Earnings, a Doubled Stock Price, and Why the Margin of Safety Has Quietly Disappeared
A Look Back at One of Our Best Calls 📈🏛️
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
NYSE: GS
$1,140.00
▲ +94.09 (+9.00%)
As of Jul-14-2026 4:00:00 PM ET
🎯 FunStock Index™ : 7 / 10 📦
Tooltip:
Outstanding Business. Fairly Valued Stock.
Goldman Sachs remains one of the world's premier financial institutions.
Its competitive advantages haven't weakened.
Its management hasn't lost its touch.
Its earnings power may actually be stronger than ever.
So why only a 7.0?
Because investing isn't simply about buying great companies.
It's about buying great companies at great prices.
When we first highlighted Goldman Sachs in April 2025, investors were buying an elite franchise at a meaningful discount following notable insider purchases.
Today, after the stock has more than doubled, that discount has largely disappeared.
Could shares continue higher?
Absolutely.
Could Goldman continue compounding intrinsic value for years?
We think so.
But future returns are now more likely to come from business execution than from multiple expansion.
That's a very different investment proposition.
💼 Executive Summary
One year ago, we published one of our strongest bullish reports on Goldman Sachs.
At the time, the catalyst wasn't complicated.
A respected director had just invested nearly $2 million of his own money into the company.
The valuation remained attractive.
The franchise was firing on all cylinders.
Most importantly...
The margin of safety was substantial.
Fast forward twelve months.
Goldman Sachs has rewarded shareholders spectacularly.
The stock has more than doubled, recently surged another 9% following blockbuster quarterly earnings, and now trades near an all-time high.
That's a tremendous outcome.
It also presents an equally important investing lesson.
Sometimes the hardest part of investing isn't recognizing a bargain.
It's recognizing when the bargain has quietly disappeared.
Today's Goldman Sachs is arguably an even better business than it was a year ago.
Ironically...
It's no longer nearly as compelling an investment.
That distinction matters.
Because great businesses and great buying opportunities are not always the same thing.
Today, we're doing something Wall Street doesn't do nearly often enough.
We're grading our own homework.
🚀 FUNanc1al Atomic Statements™
💰 The Margin of Safety Rule™
The best investments don't stay cheap forever.
📈 The Victory Trap™
Yesterday's great investment can become today's average investment without the business changing at all.
🏛️ The Discipline Dividend™
Knowing when not to buy is every bit as valuable as knowing when you should have.
One of the easiest mistakes investors make is confusing a wonderful company with a wonderful opportunity.
They're related.
They are not identical.
When prices are depressed, exceptional businesses can become extraordinary investments.
When prices surge and valuations normalize, those same businesses may still deserve admiration...
...just not the same enthusiasm.
Goldman Sachs illustrates that distinction beautifully.
📅 One Year Ago...
Our original article wasn't titled modestly.
It was called:
💼 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Where Wall Street Power Lunches with Olympus 🍽️📈
Yes...
We had a little fun with it.
But behind the humor was a serious investment thesis.
Goldman Sachs remained one of the world's premier financial institutions.
Insiders had just stepped in with meaningful purchases.
The valuation remained attractive.
Market sentiment toward investment banks was still relatively restrained.
We believed the market was underestimating both the franchise and its earnings power.
The market eventually caught up.
And then some.
🧠 Accountability Matters
One thing we've always believed at FUNanc1al is that investment research shouldn't simply disappear into the internet after publication.
Ideas deserve follow-up.
Sometimes they work.
Sometimes they don't.
Readers deserve to know both.
Fortunately, this one worked remarkably well.
Goldman Sachs has dramatically outperformed since our original publication, rewarding patient shareholders with exceptional gains.
That doesn't make us infallible.
It simply means the original thesis played out largely as expected.
Now comes the harder question.
What should investors do next?
👔 The Insider Purchase That Started It All
The catalyst behind our original report wasn't a rumor.
It wasn't television commentary.
It wasn't a macro prediction.
It was a real insider purchase.
On April 15, 2025, Goldman Sachs director John B. Hess purchased 3,904 shares at approximately $511.68 per share, investing nearly $2 million of his own capital.
That's meaningful.
Corporate insiders sell shares for countless reasons.
Taxes.
Diversification.
Estate planning.
Buying a yacht.
Buying another yacht.
But meaningful insider purchases generally happen for one reason.
The buyer believes the stock is worth more than the market currently recognizes.
That purchase didn't guarantee success.
It simply suggested that someone sitting very close to the business believed shares remained attractively valued.
Combined with Goldman Sachs' improving fundamentals, the signal was difficult to ignore.
Today, however, the picture looks very different.
Not because Goldman has become weaker.
Quite the opposite.
The business has become stronger.
The stock has simply caught up.
🏦 Goldman Sachs Is Still Goldman Sachs
None of this changes what Goldman Sachs is.
Founded in 1869, the firm remains one of the world's most influential financial institutions, operating across investment banking, trading, asset and wealth management, and institutional finance.
When markets become active...
Goldman usually finds a way to participate.
When mergers accelerate...
Goldman collects advisory fees.
When companies go public...
Goldman is often helping ring the opening bell.
When institutional investors reposition billions of dollars...
Goldman frequently earns a seat at the table.
This isn't merely another bank.
It's one of Wall Street's premier financial franchises.
That hasn't changed.
Only the price has.
🏛️ Wall Street Still Loves Goldman
One of the strongest arguments against our original bullish thesis would have been:
"Maybe Goldman Sachs has simply become yesterday's bank."
That argument looks even weaker today than it did a year ago.
Institutional investors continue to demonstrate enormous confidence in the franchise.
Roughly 75% of Goldman Sachs' float remains owned by institutions, including many of the world's largest and most sophisticated asset managers.
Among the largest shareholders are familiar names:
🏦 BlackRock
🏦 Vanguard
🏦 State Street
🏦 JPMorgan
🏦 Fidelity
Collectively, these firms manage trillions of dollars.
While institutional ownership alone never guarantees future returns, it tells us something important.
The smartest money on Wall Street still views Goldman Sachs as a core long-term holding.
That confidence hasn't faded.
Neither has ours.
Our enthusiasm for buying more today, however...
...has.
For Goldman Sachs (GS)’s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.
🐻 Where Are the Bears?
One statistic quietly caught our attention.
Despite Goldman Sachs trading near record highs...
Very few investors are betting against it.
Short interest currently sits at roughly 2.2% of outstanding shares, with fewer than three days required to cover those positions.
That's remarkably low.
In practical terms...
Goldman isn't exactly a popular short.
Professional investors clearly see risks.
They simply don't appear eager to wager heavily against one of Wall Street's strongest franchises.
Ironically, that can become a mild caution flag of its own.
When almost everyone agrees a company is exceptional...
...much of that optimism may already be reflected in the share price.
📊 Analysts Have Quietly Changed Their Tune
One year ago...
Goldman Sachs looked like a compelling value opportunity.
Today...
Wall Street analysts have largely reached the same conclusion we have.
The consensus rating?
Hold.
That's not an insult.
Far from it.
A "Hold" recommendation doesn't mean analysts dislike the company.
It simply means they believe today's valuation already reflects much of the good news.
Roughly one-third of analysts remain outright bullish.
Most of the remainder recommend holding existing positions rather than aggressively adding new ones.
That's remarkably consistent with our own assessment.
Sometimes agreement isn't exciting.
Sometimes it's simply reassuring.
🧭 ZOOMING OUT
One insider purchase can be interesting. Hundreds start becoming a pattern. From insider buying and hedge fund favorites to compounders, turnarounds, growth stories, and hidden gems, Stocks FUN is our living collection of businesses that made us stop, think, and dig deeper.
🚀 Blockbuster Earnings... and Yet...
If there were ever a quarter that justified investor enthusiasm...
This was it.
Goldman Sachs delivered one of the strongest earnings reports in its history.
Highlights included:
💰 Earnings per share: $20.98, dramatically ahead of expectations.
📈 Revenue: $20.34 billion, up approximately 39% year over year.
📊 Equities trading revenue: surged roughly 72%.
💵 Quarterly dividend: increased by 25%.
🛒 Share repurchases: approximately $4 billion.
Markets responded exactly as you'd expect.
Shares jumped roughly 9% immediately following the release.
Outstanding businesses occasionally produce outstanding quarters.
Goldman certainly did.
But here's where investing becomes interesting.
Outstanding businesses don't automatically remain outstanding buys.
Price still matters.
Perhaps more than anything else.
👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Goldman Sachs (GS)’s financials here.
💵 Valuation Finally Catches Up
This is where the story changes.
Not the business.
The valuation.
Goldman Sachs now trades at approximately:
📈 Forward P/E: 17.3
📈 Trailing P/E: 19.1
📈 PEG Ratio: 1.57
📈 Price-to-Book: 2.83
📈 Price-to-Sales: 5.42
None of those metrics suggest irrational exuberance.
Nor do they suggest the extraordinary bargain we believed existed a year ago.
The market has gradually re-priced Goldman to reflect its exceptional execution.
Exactly as it should.
When we published our original report, investors were effectively buying an elite franchise at a meaningful discount.
Today...
They're buying an elite franchise at something much closer to fair value.
There's a world of difference between those two situations.
🎯 The Margin of Safety Has Quietly Left the Building
Benjamin Graham often reminded investors that price is what you pay; value is what you receive.
That distinction sits at the heart of this update.
Goldman Sachs hasn't become a worse business.
Quite the opposite.
It may actually be stronger today than at any point in recent memory.
Investment banking has accelerated.
Trading activity remains vibrant.
Capital markets have reopened.
Management continues allocating capital intelligently.
The company deserves enormous credit.
But investors don't earn returns by buying quality alone.
They earn returns by buying quality at attractive prices.
And that's where today's Goldman Sachs differs from last year's Goldman Sachs.
The margin of safety—the cushion that made downside risk relatively attractive—has largely disappeared.
That doesn't automatically mean shares will fall.
Momentum could easily carry them even higher.
Markets often overshoot in both directions.
It simply means future returns are now more likely to depend on continued operational excellence than on multiple expansion.
In other words...
The easy money has probably been made.
💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play? (joke)
Check our takes on UnitedHealth Group or even Oscar Health.
🧠 A Different Kind of Success
Ironically, one of the hardest moments in investing arrives after you've been right.
Not because success is unpleasant.
Because success changes the math.
The company improves.
The market notices.
The valuation rises.
Eventually...
An exceptional opportunity becomes simply an exceptional business.
That's exactly where we believe Goldman Sachs finds itself today.
And that's a wonderful problem to have.
⭐ FunStock Index™: 7.0 / 10
Outstanding Business. Fairly Valued Stock.
Goldman Sachs remains one of the world's premier financial institutions.
Its competitive advantages haven't weakened.
Its management hasn't lost its touch.
Its earnings power may actually be stronger than ever.
So why only a 7.0?
Because investing isn't simply about buying great companies.
It's about buying great companies at great prices.
When we first highlighted Goldman Sachs in April 2025, investors were buying an elite franchise at a meaningful discount following notable insider purchases.
Today, after the stock has more than doubled, that discount has largely disappeared.
Could shares continue higher?
Absolutely.
Could Goldman continue compounding intrinsic value for years?
We think so.
But future returns are now more likely to come from business execution than from multiple expansion.
That's a very different investment proposition.
🎯 The FUNanc1al Value Verdict
Sometimes the best investment decision isn't buying.
It's recognizing you've already won.
Goldman Sachs has rewarded shareholders handsomely.
The original thesis worked.
The insider purchase proved well timed.
The business exceeded expectations.
Markets eventually recognized that strength.
Mission accomplished.
Today's Goldman Sachs remains a wonderful company.
It simply no longer offers the margin of safety that made it such an attractive opportunity twelve months ago.
If you already own shares...
We're perfectly comfortable continuing to hold.
If Goldman has grown into an oversized position within your portfolio...
Taking partial profits is a perfectly rational decision.
If you're considering initiating a brand-new position...
Patience may prove rewarding.
Great businesses occasionally become available at attractive prices.
You don't need to chase them after they've already sprinted.
😄 A Dash of Wall Street Humor
🏛️ Olympus Called...
Goldman Sachs still appears to maintain a branch office on Mount Olympus.
Zeus has reportedly requested an internship.
🍽️ The Power Lunch
When Goldman Sachs schedules a power lunch...
Several central banks quietly check their calendars.
💼 Wall Street's Group Project
When investment bankers say they're "working late"...
Somewhere...
A coffee machine quietly applies for overtime.
📌 Signal Extract
Yesterday's great investment can become today's average investment without the business changing at all.
🎯 High-Conviction Takeaway
The best investments don't stay cheap forever.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Is Goldman Sachs still a good company?
Absolutely.
In fact, it's arguably stronger today than when we originally covered it.
The issue isn't business quality.
It's valuation.
Why lower the FunStock Index™ after such outstanding performance?
Because the stock price has largely caught up with the underlying business.
Investors buy future returns—not past ones.
Are insiders still buying?
No major insider purchases have emerged comparable to the April 2025 transaction that originally caught our attention.
That doesn't imply weakness.
It simply removes one of the catalysts behind our original bullish thesis.
Why do analysts mostly rate Goldman a "Hold"?
Because today's valuation appears close to fair value.
That doesn't suggest weakness.
It suggests limited near-term upside compared with twelve months ago.
Would FUNanc1al buy Goldman Sachs today?
We'd probably wait.
We're happy owning outstanding businesses.
We're even happier buying them when they're temporarily out of favor.
⚡ Quick Take / TL;DR
✅ One of Wall Street's premier franchises.
✅ Blockbuster Q2 2026 earnings.
✅ Institutions remain heavily invested.
✅ Very little bearish positioning.
✅ Analysts mostly rate the stock Hold.
✅ The original insider-buy thesis played out successfully.
⚠️ Margin of safety has largely disappeared.
⚠️ Expect slower appreciation and potentially greater volatility.
💡 Hold confidently.
💡 Trim selectively if your position has become oversized.
💡 Wait patiently if you're initiating a new position.
🌍 Food for Thought: The Cross-Hub Connection
Markets constantly tempt us to focus on what's new.
New earnings.
New highs.
New forecasts.
New narratives.
Yet many of the greatest investing lessons are surprisingly old.
Buy quality.
Demand a margin of safety.
Be patient.
Know when your thesis has played out.
The discipline required to recognize that a bargain has matured into a fairly valued investment isn't just an investing skill.
It's a life skill.
Knowing when to act is important.
Knowing when not to act may be even more valuable.
👤 About the Author
Frédéric Marsanne is the founder of FUNanc1al—part market analyst, part storyteller, part accidental comedian.
A longtime investor, entrepreneur, and venture-builder across technology, biotech, and fintech, he combines rigorous research with behavioral finance and a touch of humor to help readers laugh, learn, live better lives, and invest a little wiser.
When he isn't decoding insider purchases or poking fun at earnings calls, he's building Cl1Q, writing fiction, painting, or discovering new passions to FUNalize.
📝 Editorial Note
Every FUNanc1al article is grounded in human research, analysis, and editorial judgment. Modern AI tools may assist with research organization, editing, and presentation, but every opinion, conclusion, rating, and recommendation remains subject to human oversight and responsibility.
To learn more about how we research, write, and review every article, please visit our Editorial Process page.
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