🌤️  $0.7859, +0.1124 (+16.69%) as of Jul-22-2025 4:00 PM ET 💨📈
(Ticker: TLRY)

🚀 Trigger #1: The Stock Has Nearly Doubled In a Month!

But is this a real rebound... or just another mirage in the weed desert?

Let’s be blunt 🌿: Tilray started trading at $23 back in July 2018 and was once flying as high as $300 in September 2018. Today? It’s barely scraping the skies—worth less than a buck, even after nearly doubling on high volume in recent weeks. So, what gives? Is it finally time for Tilray to light up… or is this just another puff of hope dissipating in the wind?

🪞Trigger #2: Reverse Stock Split Approved… But Paused

Stockholders said yes to a reverse split (1:10 to 1:20) in June 2025. 🎭
But Tilray is holding off for now while it watches how the price behaves. Reverse splits are often a last-ditch effort to meet Nasdaq’s minimum price requirement—but maybe the market bounce buys them time?

If enacted, the split would:

• ✅ Help keep Nasdaq listing 🌐

• ✅ Appeal to institutions 🏦

• ✅ Cut shareholder meeting costs 💸 (up to $1M/year!)

But make no mistake: no split, reverse or otherwise, fixes fundamentals.

🧮 A Quick Hit of the Financials

💵 Revenue:

• $186M in Q3 FY25

• Up to $193M in constant currency

• But SKU rationalization knocked off $13M

💸 Profitability?

• Gross profit up 5% to $52M

• Net Loss: a hazy $(793.5M) 🤯
  (Yes, that includes $700M of “non-cash” stuff… but still.)

Adjusted net loss: -$2.9M
Adjusted EPS: $0.00 (again)
Adjusted EBITDA: $9M (a slight decline)

Operating cash flow?
🟥 Still negative: - $81.8M for 9 months
(Last year: -$61.6M — not exactly improving...)

💰 Balance Sheet: Surprisingly Stable

• $248M in cash & marketable securities 🏦

• Debt cut by $71M

• Net debt to EBITDA: < 1.0x
  🟢 This is Tilray’s biggest green flag: They’re not broke. Not yet.

👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Tilray Brands (TLRY)'s financials here.

💡 Strategic Buzz: What’s Tilray Cooking?

🥤 Hemp-Derived THC Drinks (aka Project 420)

• Sold in 10 U.S. states 🍹

• 1,000+ points of distribution

• New brands: 420 Fizz, Happy Flower, Fizzy Jane, Herb & Bloom

• Revenue so far: $1.4M – not huge, but a start

• Partners include Total Wine, ABC, and others

🌱 Cannabis Moves

• Redirected inventory to international markets for higher margins

• Pulling back on low-margin vapes & pre-rolls

• Canadian + German sales strong

• Gross margin on cannabis: 41% (was 33%) 🎯

🧠 Tech Push: AI & Crypto

• AI-driven greenhouse management 🤖🌿

• Accepting cryptocurrency soon 💸

• Exploring blockchain-based strategic options 🤯

🧑💼 Insider Buys: Not Quite a Puff of Confidence

While insiders did buy stock in 2024, the amounts were… modest. CEO Irwin Simon bought ~$100K worth. CFO Carl Merton nabbed ~$35K back in November.
🙃 Nice, but not exactly screaming “BUY WITH ME!”

🏦 Institutions: Missing in Action

Only ~10% of float is institutionally owned.
The federal stance doesn't help, nor does the cash burn.
There's a not-so-remote chance Smart Money just doesn’t believe yet.

Either way: Warren Buffett hasn’t touched it.
(Hint: he also doesn’t invest in haunted houses or weed stocks.)

🔍 For Institutional Ownership breakdown, see here. 

📊 Valuation? Surprisingly Low

• Price/Sales: 0.80

• Price/Book: 0.30
  So yes, it's cheap. Like thrift-store-in-a-clearance-bin cheap. But does that make it good?

🧺 Brand Basket: Diversified and Broad

• Cannabis: Aphria, Tilray, Good Supply

• Beverages: SweetWater Brewing, Montauk, Green Flash

• Wellness: Manitoba Harvest, Happy Flower
  Over 20 brands in 20+ countries, across Canada, U.S., Europe, LatAm, Australia 🌍
  📦 They’ve got reach. They’ve got variety.
  📉 They still don’t have profits.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚫 Still not profitable
🪙 Burning cash, not bud
🏛️ Regulatory uncertainty remains
🔁 “One-time” impairments happen again and again
⚔️ Facing fierce legal and illegal competition
🤷♂️ Past promises of profitability haven’t materialized (yet)

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
Check our takes on UnitedHealth Group or even Oscar Health.

🧠 Bottom Line: A High-Risk Speculative Play

✅ Good balance sheet
✅ Real brands and retail presence
✅ Management trying to cut costs and improve margins
❌ Still losing money
❌ Still not producing positive operating cash flow
❌ Still no insider urgency or institutional love

If you believe the cannabis sector will blossom 🌸 and Tilray won’t go up in smoke 🔥, it might be worth a nibble. But start small, dollar-cost-average, and wait for profits.

🤯 Funanc1al's Weed-Infused Disclaimer

We don’t smoke. We hope for the truth.
But that doesn’t mean we don’t hallucinate.
🚬💨 Invest at your own risk. 

This is not financial advice. It’s just a second opinion — and yes, we’re billing your sense of humor. 🎪💸

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