Should Retail Indulge — or Just Research Some More?

NYSE: IT — Gartner, Inc.
$233.89 | +1.23 (+0.53%)
As of Dec 12, 2025 · 4:10 PM ET

FUNstock Index: 7 / 10 🎯

🕵️ When the Research Firm Becomes the Research Target

Gartner is the company executives call when they don’t want opinions — they want answers. So when Gartner itself suddenly lights up insider buying alerts, institutional ownership charts, and aggressive share repurchases… well, irony deserves investigation.

Because when the global authority on IT strategy, AI roadmaps, and enterprise decision-making starts screaming “we’re undervalued” with its own wallet, it’s worth listening.

Let’s open the case file. 📂

🔔 Trigger #1: A Whale-Sized Insider Buy

On December 10, 2025, Gartner director Stephen G. Pagliuca didn’t nibble — he feasted:

• Shares purchased: 43,300

• Price: $229.57

• Total value: ~$9.94 million

• Ownership increase: +63% 🤯

This wasn’t a casual “confidence sprinkle.” This was a “back up the Brinks truck” moment.

Pagliuca isn’t just any board member. He’s a former Bain Capital heavyweight, helped build private equity giants, owns an Italian Serie A football club, and once ran the Boston Celtics. The man understands timing, cycles, and value.

And yes — if he likes soccer, he’s probably on the ball. ⚽

Insiders buy for one main reason: they believe the future looks better than the price.

🏦 Trigger #2: Institutions Are Piled In (Almost Too Much)

Here’s where things get spicy.

• Institutional ownership: 108% of shares 😳

• Float held by institutions: 112%

• Number of institutions: 1,205

That’s not a typo — that’s what heavy borrowing, lending, and positioning look like when big money refuses to leave the party.

Top holders include:

• Vanguard (owns 13.99% of outstanding shares, as of Sep 30, 2025) 🏛️

• BlackRock (owns 10.58% of outstanding shares, as of Sep 30, 2025) 🪨

• BAMCO

• State Street

• Capital Group

Translation: this stock lives in long-term portfolios, not trading desks.

And when institutions own everything, price drops tend to reflect sentiment shifts, not broken businesses.

For Gartner (IT)’s Institutional Ownership breakdown, 🔍 see here.

📉 Trigger #3: Analysts… Meh. Insiders… YES.

Wall Street analysts currently rate Gartner a Hold, with a mean price target near $278.

RBC recently trimmed its target to $250. Boring? Yes. Fatal? No.

Because analysts look backward. Insiders look forward.

Contrarian investors may relate — or correlate (!)

When analyst caution collides with insider conviction, that’s often where opportunity hides — quietly, patiently, sipping espresso while waiting for re-rating.

🧾 Trigger #4: Short Interest, But No Horror Movie

• Short interest: ~7.3%

That’s enough to keep bears interested, but nowhere near panic territory. No meme-stock drama. No crowded short thesis. Just skepticism.

Which is exactly what value likes best. 😌

📊 Trigger #5: Earnings — A Tale of Two Years

Q3 2025: The Ugly Duckling 🦆

• Revenue: +2.7%

• Net income: -91% (ouch)

• Free cash flow: -52%

• Adjusted EPS: +10% (important!)

Yes, GAAP numbers looked rough. But this came after an exceptionally strong 2024, and management made one thing clear:

“Seeing extraordinary value and a unique opportunity, we repurchased more than $1 billion of stock — a Gartner record.”

Companies don’t buy back stock aggressively when the business is falling apart.

2024: The Swan 🦢

• Revenue growth: +8%

• Net income: +42%

• Free cash flow: +31%

• EPS growth: nearly +80%

This wasn’t a declining franchise — it was a pause after a sprint.

 👉 Want the full picture? Dive into Gartner (IT)’s financials here.

💰 Valuation: From Premium to… Reasonable?!

Gartner’s valuation metrics have collapsed by more than half in under a year:

• Forward P/E: ~17 (down from ~39)

• Price/Sales: ~2.8 (down from ~6.6)

• EV/EBITDA: ~14 (down from ~30)

For a business with:

• recurring subscriptions

• high operating leverage

• mission-critical IP

• elite client retention

…this is no longer luxury pricing.

And remember:
📉 Shares are ~60% below their February 2025 all-time high of $584.

Even a partial recovery could be meaningful.

🤖 Gartner + AI: Quietly Critical

Gartner doesn’t build AI — it guides everyone else through it.

Its new AskGartner AI platform improves research access and renewal stickiness, while clients increasingly rely on Gartner to:

• choose vendors

• allocate AI budgets

• avoid catastrophic tech mistakes

In the AI gold rush, Gartner sells the maps, not the shovels.

And maps age very well.

⚖️ Reasons to Like (and Fear) Gartner

👍 Why This Works

• Predictable, recurring revenue 📆

• High margins from intellectual property 💡

• Massive buybacks boosting EPS 🧮

• Insider conviction 💰

• Defensive business model 🛡️

⚠️ What Could Go Wrong

• Growth remains mid-single digits

• AI narrative needs sharper acceleration

• Valuation still not “cheap-cheap”

• Enterprise spending cycles can wobble

This isn’t a rocketship. It’s a well-engineered research submarine — slow, deep, resilient.

💡💡💡 Curious about another deep oil exploration play?
Check our takes on UnitedHealth Group or even Oscar Health.

🧠 Bottom Line

Gartner isn’t flashy. It’s not viral. It doesn’t trend on TikTok.

But when insiders deploy eight figures, institutions own everything, and the company itself buys back stock like it’s Black Friday… you pay attention.

This looks less like a value trap — and more like a value rebuild.

⚡ Quick Take / TL;DR

• 🕵️ Massive insider buy (+63% ownership)

• 🏦 Institutions fully committed

• 📉 Stock down ~60% from ATH

• 💰 Valuation reset dramatically

• 🤖 AI tailwinds via advisory role

• 🎯 Not risk-free, but increasingly compelling

FUNstock Index: 7 / 10 🎯

❓ FAQ

Is Gartner a growth stock?
Not really. It’s a high-margin, recurring-revenue compounder with modest growth.

Why did earnings dip in 2025?
Comparison against a monster 2024, plus reinvestment and timing effects.

Does AI help or hurt Gartner?
Likely helps. Confusion creates demand for guidance — Gartner’s specialty.

Is this a value trap?
Unlikely. Subscription resilience + buybacks reduce downside risk.

✍️ About the Author

Frédéric Marsanne is the founder of FUNanc1al, where even finance meets fun. A longtime investor, strategist, and storyteller, he blends serious market analysis with insights on health, tech, culture, and the occasional absurdity of modern life. His work mixes curiosity, clarity, and a healthy skepticism of hype — because matters, metrics, and markets should be understood… and occasionally laughed at.

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