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Only those who have patience to do simple things perfectly ever acquire the skill to do difficult things easily.

James Corbett

Indecision and delays are the parents of failure.

George Canning

Nothing is worth more than this day.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Eighty percent of success is showing up.

Woody Allen

I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve it through not dying.

Woody Allen

Triple the number of ideas you generate.

Adam Grant

MARKET UPDATE


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Remember…

If money does not make you happy, give it back.

Jules Renard

 

Chill!!!

If the market goes down, stocks are less expensive and…

A better deal.

Miscellaniu… No, Miscelanu… Miscellannno

Miscellaneous!

The current S&P 500 P/E ratio is 23.86 (as of 5/11/16, end of day) – to compare with a mean P/E of 15.59 and median of 14.62 (sample data since 1870). Stocks are rather expensive – but we are NOT in a bubble. 
 
 
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 23.86   -0.23 (-0.96%)
(4:10 pm EDT, Wed May 11)

 

Mean: 15.59  since 1870
Median: 14.62  since 1870
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)

Price to earnings ratio, based on trailing twelve month “as reported” earnings.
Current PE is estimated from latest reported earnings and current market price.
 
 
No matter what – US rate hikes, global growth concerns, the volatility of oil and other commodities, bondrama, Russia and China’s military ambitions, La Hilary vs. The Donald, etc. – great companies will continue to thrive. If you are a long-term investor, buy opportunities are out there. An example? Some energy issues (despite the sector’s recent advance) are still reasonably priced. No wonder Warren Buffett not long ago added to his Phillips 66 (PSX) holdings, and insiders have until recently bought energy (and commodity) stocks like there were no tomorrow… Biotech and healthcare have also come down. Tough to tell when Biogen (BIIB) will hit bottom (the shares may already have), but they seem to present investors with real long-term appreciation potential at current prices. (An insider bought a massive amount of BIIB on 10/22 and 10/23/2015.) So do HCA Holdings (HCA), Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Incyte Corporation (INCY), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (REGN) and a few others. Financials are also increasingly appealing; no wonder CEO James Dimon not long ago bought $28 million worth of JPMorgan & Co (JPM) shares (2/11/16). Ditto for some retailers and casino stocks. J C Penney Company Inc (JCP), Macy’s, Inc. (M), Coach (COH), Michael Kors (KORS), Dollar General (DG), Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS), Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA), Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU), Tailored Brands (TLRD) and even Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) may still be worth investigating (specially after the recent selloff of some of these issues). Casino equities led by Wynn Resorts (WYNN) (up sharply over the past few weeks after a bout of insider purchases and now likely consolidating) may continue to outperform (after underperforming for months). So may some admittedly cheap industrials and materials a la Alcoa Inc (AA), United States Steel Corporation (X), Triumph Group Inc (TGI), Harsco Corporation (HSC), Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (USAP), etc. Please, see below and our daily updates for insiders and hedge funds’ takes and many more ideas…

 

Shareholders beware!

 

Updated at 6:14 am EST, May 12, 2016

 

Let’s quote Robert R. Johnson, President of the American College of Financial Services in Bryn Mawr, PA:

“From 1966 through 2013, the Standard & Poor’s 500 returned 15.2% annually during expansive periods (when rates were falling) and only 5.9% during restrictive periods (when rates were rising). After adjusting for inflation, the average real return to equities during restrictive periods was less than 1%.” (As reported in Barron’s, December 14, 2015 issue, “Rising Rates Spell Stock Trouble”)

He continues, “During expansive periods, consumer-discretionary industries such as apparel, retail, automobiles, and durable goods are top performers. It makes sense: As the Fed pumps more money into the pockets of consumers, they can buy that new car, washing machine, or business suit. During restrictive periods, defensive industries such as food, energy, and utilities have performed better than most. When money is dear, people still have to eat, drive their cars, and heat their homes.”

“Commodities, on the other hand, provide us with a return pattern that is exactly the opposite to that of equities. From 1970 through 2013, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which represents a broad index of 24 different commodities, had a -0.2% return in expansive periods and a 17.7% return during restrictive periods. Our findings suggest that investors facing rising interest rates should consider this beaten-down asset class and “be greedy when others are fearful,” as Warren Buffett says and often demonstrates in his investing.”

Still waiting for commodities and energy to take off… 1/21

Well, it’s happening, isn’t it? 1/22

Oh yeah… 1/23

Well, maybe not… 1/25

Definitely… 1/26, 2/4

 

Chinese equities are NOT in a bubble.

 

Equity Valuation Measures 

Market P/E Current Year Estimate P/E Next Year Estimate Price to Sales Price to Book Dividend Yield
China 13.8 12.72 1.23 1.6 2.07
Hong Kong 10.7 9.68 1.63 1.1 3.71
India 17.95 15 2.14 2.66 1.62
Japan 14.95 13.73 0.74 1.27 1.87
Singapore 12.23 11.44 1.21 1.08 4.16
U.K. 15.27 13.3 1.18 1.71 4.27
U.S. 16.44 14.58 1.76 2.54 2.25

* Source: Bloomberg Professional (WPE page as of 12/31/2015)

 

CME: Quasi-monopolistic… Great fundamentals and technicals… Rates rising 2 help… CME now stands 4 Call Me Earnings!!! (one of my stocktwits… Follow me at http://stocktwits.com/FUNanc1al)

 

Remind me: What’s not to like about Facebook (FB)?

 

Updated at 1:47 am EST, March 7, 2016

Remember!!!

 

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.

Mark Twain

 

The more the market slumps, the less it makes sense to sell and the more it makes sense to buy; stocks are less expensive.

The FUnanc!al Team

 

If things are not failing, you are not innovating enough.

Elon Musk

 

Crises are opportunities True in the stock market. True in life.

The best investments start with a big scare…

The FUNanc!al Team

Insider Buys

Recently or earlier this year insiders have bought shares of (new today) Intellia Therapeutics Inc (NTLA), First of Long Island Corp (FLIC), Endo International plc (ENDP), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), Performance Sports Group Ltd (PSG), Pershing Gold Corp (PGLC), Avid Technology, Inc. (AVID), Cherokee Inc (CHKE), Weatherford International Plc (WFT), Inovalon Holdings Inc (INOV), Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT), Western Refining, Inc. (WNR), Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H), Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (GLRE), Ball Corporation (BLL), Triangle Capital Corporation (TCA), Bank Of The Ozarks Inc (OZRK), MINDBODY Inc (MB), B. Riley Financial Inc (RILY), NuStar Energy L.P. (NS/NSH), ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA), Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS), Accuride Corporation (ACW), Biocept Inc (BIOC), AT&T Inc. (T), Sterling Construction Company, Inc. (STRL), Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP), Ignyta Inc (RXDX), ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR), Cimpress NV (CMPR), Seagate Technology PLC (STX), Infinera Corp. (INFN), Tempur Sealy International Inc (TPX), Pandora Media Inc (P), PRGX Global Inc (PRGX), XL Group plc (XL), United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL), Mylan NV (MYL), FNB Bancorp (FNBG), Performance Sports Group Ltd (PSG), DURECT Corporation (DRRX), Mattress Firm Holding Corp (MFRM), MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP), Resonant Inc. (RESN), Vince Holding Corp (VNCE), Cellectar Biosciences Inc (CLRB), BATS Global Markets, Inc. (BATS), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM), Porter Bancorp, Inc. (PBIB), Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (INO), Severn Bancorp, Inc. (SVBI), Western Refining Logistics LP (WNRL), Tangoe Inc (TNGO), Aeglea Bio Therapeutics Inc (AGLE), Iconix Brand Group Inc (ICON), Mattress Firm Holding Corp (MFRM), William Lyon Homes (WLH), Conn’s Inc (CONN), Citius Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CTXR), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD), Ampliphi Biosciences Corp (APHB), Ibio Inc (IBIO), Clayton Williams Energy, Inc. (CWEI), Actuant Corporation (ATU), vTv Therapeutics Inc (VTVT), Mattress Firm Holding Corp (MFRM), Itron, Inc. (ITRI), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD), Aimmune Therapeutics Inc (AIMT), Opko Health Inc. (OPK), Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC), Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRVS), Community Shores Bank Corporation (CSHB), Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP. (RNF), Patriot National Inc (PN), OvaScience Inc (OVAS), Flex Pharma Inc (FLKS), Senseonics Holdings, Inc., formerly ASN Technologies, Inc. (SENS), Tangoe Inc (TNGO), Centrus Energy Corp (LEU), Heat Biologics Inc (HTBX), InspireMD Inc (NSPR), BioRestorative Therapies Inc (BRTX), Seritage Growth Properties (SRG), Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI), Seattle Genetics, Inc. (SGEN), OvaScience Inc (OVAS), Acacia Research Corp (ACTG), Antares Pharma Inc (ATRS), Ignyta Inc (RXDX), TESARO Inc (TSRO), Cara Therapeutics Inc (CARA), Capricor Therapeutics Inc (CAPR), Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV), Autobytel Inc. (ABTL), Incyte Corporation (INCY), Stamps.com Inc. (STMP), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM), Aetna Inc (AET), NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL), Western Gas Partners, LP (WES), Flamel Technologies S.A. (ADR) (FLML), Aquinox Pharmaceuticals Inc (AQXP), Itron, Inc. (ITRI), VIVUS, Inc. (VVUS), Relypsa Inc (RLYP), Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (REIT) (RHP), Leucadia National Corp. (LUK), JMP Group Inc. (JMP), Mosaic Co (MOS), Edge Therapeutics Inc (EDGE), Tempur Sealy International Inc (TPX), Greif, Inc. (GEF), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Ecolab Inc. (ECL), Town Sports International Holdings, Inc. (CLUB), LabStyle Innovations Corp (DRIO), Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN), Ocwen Financial Corp (OCN), Bankrate Inc (RATE), Zoe’s Kitchen Inc. (ZOES), Endo International plc (ENDP), Charles & Colvard, Ltd. (CTHR), Tangoe Inc (TNGO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Seneca Foods Corp (SENEB), Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NUS), CST Brands Inc (CST), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), J C Penney Company Inc (JCP), LKQ Corporation (LKQ), Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD), Avangrid, Inc., formerly Iberdrola USA, Inc. (AGR), Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc (SNDX), Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK), Fortress Transprtn and Infr Investrs LLC (FTAI), TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG), Loral Space & Communications Ltd. (LORL), Apricus Biosciences Inc (APRI), Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc (KW), TASER International, Inc. (TASR), K2M Group Holdings Inc (KTWO), Carbo Ceramics (CRR), NeoGenomics, Inc. (NEO), American Assets Trust, Inc (AAT), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK), MacroGenics Inc (MGNX), eBay Inc (EBAY), AppFolio (APPF), Accuride Corporation (ACW), Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WTW), Research Solutions Inc (RSSS), Hannon Armstrong Sustnbl Infrstr Cap Inc. (HASI).

 

(The aforementioned list of insider buys is pre-screened by our in-house team of .o3 analysts!) 

 

s2s1s3

 

Updated at 6:10 am EST, May 12, 2016

Disclaimer

1. We are ourselves and nobody else but ourselves, which is us, so we are not responsible for the people who are not us and we are serious it’s not a joke.  2. We are not brokers we wanted to be brokers but there are exams and we can’t take too many exams because they are difficult and so we are not brokers nor do we intend to become brokers as long as there are exams. 3. We in no way claim that we have investigated or even considered or even tried to consider contemplating not to mention ignited a thought process revolving around the[...]
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See Stocks through a Different Lens

 

"Deadly Investment Sin No. 1: Believing that you have to predict the market's next move to make big returns."

 

"Reality: Highly successful investors are no better at predicting the market's next move than you or I."

 
 

Mark Tier, Author

Becoming Rich

The Wealth-Building Secrets of the World’s Master Investors

Buffett, Icahn, Soros

Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.

Jim Cramer

I’ll let the racket do the talking.

John McEnroe

To err is nature, to rectify error is glory.

George Washington

Energy and persistence conquer all things.

Benjamin Franklin

You’ll never find a better sparring partner than adversity.

Golda Meir

I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.

Nelson Mandela